Micro-Issue-Campaigning was at fault
This armchair quarterback says Democrats couldn't come to grips with the big issues that moved the voters to ballot for Donald Trump, a recipe for disaster in the Democrat's orbit
When you’re an armchair quarterback, it’s easy to point fingers, to decide what went wrong in sports, politics, and everyday life. Today’s diagnosis is not about football, basketball, golf or any other sports event or even about everyday life. It’s about the competition of everyday politics, what went right, what went wrong, who’s to blame, and a million other questions about the recent election for President.
From where I sit at my kitchen table writing this surface analysis, I have my own ideas—surprise, surprise—about this year’s election results, especially the Republicans’ success for the Presidency, the United States House of Representative, and the United States Senate. Here goes:
With the Democrats nationally and in some states, the reason defeat—or the success of the Republicans—came so easily was due to emphasis by the Democrats (I am one) on the wrong issues (not my choice of issues), instead of the ideas that drive campaigns to victory specifically on the national level. Statewide elections are a different story. Let’s concentrate on the Presidential election though we vote state-by-state. (See electoral college.)
This season, with little time to spare because Joe Biden dropped out late and Kamala Harris quickly and unopposed became the sacrificial lamb, Democrats—very few if any wanted to take Biden’s place with little time to spare; Harris sort of had to—lost the game, even after a first quarter victory, a meek and mild debate between Harris and Trump.
Experts say Harris got the best of Trump in that exchange hosted by ABC News, but it reminds me of Br’er Rabbit (Trump), the trickster who pleaded to the fox (Harris) not to throw him in the Briar Patch. When Br’er Rabbit is tossed into the the thicket, he escapes the fox with no harm. On the surface, it appeared Trump was hurt in the debate but in reality the bandy set him up for the remainder of the campaign.
For one, starting with that debate, even more so then when Biden was the candidate to oppose Trump, the race centered around Trump’s 100 and one and more lies. The “main stream” news media and the Harris campaign chased those lies when the general public really didn’t care.
So, on the way to election day, Democrats leaned on exposing Trump’s falsehoods and micro-issues, trying to draw in a vast but patchwork coalition while the Republicans leaned on two primary issues that were the talk of the nation as a whole. For the GOP, what was good for North Carolina was good for Pennsylvania was good for Georgia was good for, well, you get the picture. If not, go stick your head in the sand.
It started when the Supreme Court overturned the national abortion law, sending the issue to the states to decide. The Democrats agreed then and there the abortion issue would be front and center. After the Supreme Court’s mandate, 13 states banned abortion and eight others have laws that says it is legal with a gestational period of 6-to-18 weeks. In the remaining 29 states, it’s legal but with other footnotes.
That should have ended abortion as a pressing issue, but the Harris campaign continued to beat that horse. Don’t get me wrong. I agree with those who say abortion should fall under a woman’s right to choose what to do with her body. It’s just that the issue didn’t resonate with wide swarths of voters. (It did in North Carolina’s gubernatorial election but didn’t in North Carolina’s presidential voting.) And, even if Harris had been elected, Congress would reject her efforts to reverse the Supreme Court’s ruling.
Even though the nation showed strong division over the abortion issue, it was small potatoes to the majority of the voters. Too bad Democrats couldn’t see that as they pounded on that micro-issue, a description that infuriates some and is understood by the multitudes.
The problem with making abortion a front and center campaign issue is the electorate in the 29 states had bigger more meaningful fish to fry. Examples of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin jump out at you. If abortion is settled there and legal, it’s a non-issue to the big bucket of voters. Drop it and emphasize issues that could attract voters to the Democratic nominee.
This goes for similar issues such as child care, home buying, gay marriage, and transgenders and the use of pronouns for gender identification. One of the most effective commercials by the Trump campaign was “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you” and various cuts of it which reportedly were aired more than 30,000 times in the swing states, especially during football games, according to that link to WikipediA. Trump’s team micro-campaigned on wide-ranging issues.
That simple commercial—and one with Vice President Kamala Harris saying she couldn’t think of anything she would do different from President Joe Biden—hit home with groups, especially the labor force and union workers, which usually side with Democrats. They voted for Trump—though Trump is pro-business, which in a way I think we all are—who will deny workers better wages and working conditions.
Harris wanted to be the candidate of change but had nothing to change from her four years as Vice President, being the dutiful assistant to the President. Trump saw the opening to be the change candidate and took it.
Those two commercials segued into the issue of immigration which Trump has been pounding on for eight years, four as President and four while he campaigned for President this time around.
No matter what Trump did or didn’t do in his previous Presidency or what Biden did the last four years, Trump said immigration is a disaster with murderers and thieves and criminals (not to be confused with murderers and thieves) entering the United States daily if not more often. Saying he would deport the unwanted resonated with voters, not all but plenty of them.
Which brings us to the second most important issue, the economy, which Trump drilled down to the simple issue of higher grocery prices, something that is understood by everyone, blaming it on Biden and Harris though the pandemic (COVID) had a lot to do with it when businesses felt the gut punch and increased prices, especially on necessities.
There’s little doubt that any President can roll back prices but making it an issue pushed Trump back into the White House. Don’t be surprised to see prices stay the same or rise sooner than later. Same with gas prices that in our area teeters at Harris Teeter around $3 a gallon.
On the local level where economics drill down, there were two bond issues on our ballot in Cary NC. Usually these financing proposals are adopted by the voters with little fanfare, not even close. But this time was different.
The bond issues, one for parks and recreation and another for affordable housing, were rejected by the good citizens of Cary with a population of more than 180,000, about half which voted. The outcome of the two proposals wasn’t even close.
A parks and recreation bond ($560 million) was rejected by 55 percent (51,527 no votes) to 45 percent (42,298 yes votes). The bond would have funded an indoor sports and recreation community center, two senior centers, pickleball and tennis court expansions, and planning for greenways.
Voters also rejected the town’s $30 million affordable housing bond, voted down 51.5 percent (47,978 no votes) to 48.5 percent (45,621 yes votes). It would have supported local nonprofits and current programs helping residents facing displacement or struggling to pay utility bills.
Recent rising property taxes based on recent property revaluation was the deciding factor in the bond referendums which would have increased Cary’s tax rate by about nine cents per $100 of property value. That may not sound like a lot but when hit by the revaluation increases, it was enough for the voters to say no.
Those bond issues were not presented to the voters at the right time. Instead of putting them on the ballot in a Presidential/Governor election cycle, waiting two years when national and statewide elections (except for a US Senate seat) are not on the ballot would have increased the chances for passage. I don’t look for them to reappear any time soon.
So, while Trump was having fun at his rallies, while he was laying on thick his rhetoric about immigration and the economy, the Democrats were campaigning on minor issues, not unimportant issues, but those that had little meaning to the masses that voted.
Politics is much more important than sports because it’s what drives the nation. But, while Democrats were stuck in the first quarter of the contest. bragging about the debate win, resting on those laurels, Trump and his advisors dissected the Democrats game plan and knew better what it would take to win the last three periods and get the championship trophy.
The Democratic Party can debate within itself, can point fingers of blame to lots of areas, can condemn the voters for listening to Trump and wanting his type of change after four very good years of Biden’s presidency, but that will not solve the problem.
In the 2028 election, the Democrats need to pick a populist candidate and campaign on two or three populist issues, not many micro-issues, if they want a chance to win.
Consider the alternatives: J.D. Vance? Donald Trump, Jr.? Matt Gaetz? Tulsi Gabbard? Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? Pete Hegseth? And a host of others. Both parties will have a last person standing primary race for the nation’s top job.
The good news in all of this? “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.” That’s in the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution of the United States. The next four years are the last four years of a Trump presidency if we stick with the Constitution.
So, as I sit in my armchair, that’s my post-game analysis on the 2024 election—with a look ahead—and I’m sticking with it.
On the other hand, similar but different, read this take by The New Republic:
NOTE: After six straight posts about politics, next up is a return to sports, specifically college football and the regular-season-ending “Pieces of Shit” game, NC State at North Carolina, on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, the day (but not the date) of my wedding anniversary.